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    • CommentAuthorrdewey
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006 edited
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    I was doing research for one of my ventures, and was going through some data from Pew Internet and American Life Project. Basically, they send out surveys to alot of highly respectable technology and internet folks (i.e. guys who invented ethernet, fiber optic networking, etc.). The results are quite interesting, and since "knowing" the future would help greatly in the world of business, I will share some of my findings.

    In the survey, 59% of the respondents believe that most, if not all, appliances will be connected to the internet by 2014. This includes things like your refrigerator, your coffee maker, your home heating and cooling, etc..

    Some examples: Your refrigerator could detect when to add an item to your shopping list. Since it's connected to the internet, that list just happens to be beamed to your cellular phone or PDA. On vacation and want to turn your air conditioning on the day before you get back? Flip open your cellular phone...

    In the survey, 54 percent of respondents believe that large scale creativity and data sharing will be in place by 2014. This would be, of course, independently-produced creative works and intellectual data.

    Instead of uploading your videos to YouTube, you would just right-click and share them... Want to search videos? Conduct one simple search with filetype (and other parameters) set to "video".

    In the survey, 53 percent of respondents believe that your media and files will be "everywhere". This would be in the form of video, music, voice, and pure data.

    Some examples: Suppose you record a show on Tivo... You can now watch that show on ANY device that supports such a format. If you're at work and bored, flip open your PDA and start watching that Tivo'd video. How about music? If your car radio is WiMax capable, your entire music collection is right there...

    In the survey, 52 percent of respondents believe that 90 percent of America will be connected to broadband dramatically faster than today's broadband.

    This would include such technology as BPL (Broadband over Power Lines) and WiMax. Sprint promises that WiMax will cover 100M users by 2008, with speeds approaching 4mbps at a cost of at or below $30.00.

    So, to sum it up... It looks like your data will eventually be universally accessible no matter where you are. Every device will be a connection point and a tool for controlling data and information (seamlessly, of course). For standard devices, the need for high bandwidth is relatively low (how big can a shopping list be?!), but for "media everywhere", we would probably need to see >20mbps (symmetrically) to see good user adoption. Once we hit fiber in 2020 (or whenever), it wouldn't surprise me to see a WebFS and remote hard drive containing all of the data you want universally accessible.

    • CommentAuthorAudarius
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    Believing is different from actual certainty. The survey is interesting, but it's far from conclusive, which then is relying on pure probablity. I would take it lightly and not base the future off of this information, but instead to always keep it in mind.

    The percentage itself is a good sign of probablity.

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      CommentAuthorEric
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    I don't take it that lightly. Those things don't seem too outlandish to me, especially your home appliances. That only makes sense. It's going to be a wild ride over the next 50 years.

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      CommentAuthorSSM
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    You can apply Moore's Law to all of technology (not just processor chips).

    The next 50 years are going to be exponentially more innovative than the past 50 (which gave us the PC, basically any "technological" home product, the Internet...and as I watch ESPN, extreme sports. haha)

    Working on a movie script
    • CommentAuthorrdewey
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    Well, I'm just waiting for the day that I can browse YGG from my coffee maker! ;-)

    Anyway, while I wouldn't use it as 100% fact, I would give some of those things a good degree of weight. For starters, the study group (of around +500 I believe) was a hand selected group of internet pioneers. Many of these people were either accessing or pushing internet access well before people had PC's in their home, and successfuly predicted the rise of the internet for personal use.

    I guess whoever can create a way for all devices to interact via the internet will be the next Microsoft (or bigger). Who cares about the desktop market, especially when the number of devices (and the rate at which they are purchased) far exceed home PC's.

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      CommentAuthorSSM
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    Television needs to go 100% web. It's nearly there. But your TV would be its own Tivo, or maybe what comcast is doing with On Demand and store everything on servers. Catch any game, anywhere that has a camera. Just broadcast it to the internet, zap it to the tube, viola! It beats crappy local channels, and the "theres nothing on"...

    Working on a movie script
    • CommentAuthorAudarius
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006 edited
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    I guess whoever can create a way for all devices to interact via the internet will be the next Microsoft (or bigger). Who cares about the desktop market, especially when the number of devices (and the rate at which they are purchased) far exceed home PC's.

    I don't see how a company can become the next Microsoft by having all devices interact via the internet. It's more a luxury and not something that is actually needed. Because in the end I could just say: So what? Why would I want a coffee maker that connects to the internet? To find out what my neighbor is making? It's cool, but it serves no purpose.

    I wouldn't be so quick to disregard the desktop. The desktop PC by itself is much more valuable than having everything connected to the internet. You have to consider the factors regarding the purchase of a home PC and other devices.

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      CommentAuthorSSM
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    Audarius - There were millions of people that said "so what" to the internet years upon years ago. Not everyone saw a use for it. And now, I dont think I have to go thru the popularity of the internet not only for personal but also business uses.

    An online coffee maker?...could download coupons, provide new recipes, connect to your calendar to have coffee ready when you want it, reorder filters/coffee/creamer by itself. There are uses, and as long as there is a market for those uses, it's possible that a coffee maker could go online.

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    • CommentAuthorrdewey
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006 edited
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    Posted By: Audarius
    I guess whoever can create a way for all devices to interact via the internet will be the next Microsoft (or bigger). Who cares about the desktop market, especially when the number of devices (and the rate at which they are purchased) far exceed home PC's.

    I don't see how a company can become the next Microsoft by having all devices interact via the internet. It's more a luxury and not something that is actually needed. Because in the end I could just say: So what? Why would I want a coffee maker that connects to the internet? To find out what my neighbor is making? It's cool, but it serves no purpose.

    I wouldn't be so quick to disregard the desktop. The desktop PC by itself is much more valuable than having everything connected to the internet.

    There seems to be some confusion here...

    Confusion 1: Right now, you are right - there is no reason that appliances should be connected to the internet. But generally speaking, we are discussing the future, as in 10...20... or even 60 years.

    If you told people 25 years ago that they needed desktop PC's in their house, you would have received the same response you just gave me "so what, what's the purpose". I mean come on, I could always pose the following question; what's the purpose of anything?

    Confusion 2: I'm also not disregarding the desktop, but I'm saying that there are 100 times more devices being sold than desktops, making it a much more liquid market.

    Confusion 3: "Internet" and WWW aren't the same thing in this context, meaning your devices wouldn't have their own website. Instead, you might be connected via an open platform that each device connects to (that's where the money would be - I think being on 3 billion devices beats being on 300 million PC's anyday).

    The point of having devices/appliances connected to the web would be access and control, as I have already exemplified. Yeah, it may not be a big deal now... but what about 60 years from now when your iRobot (designed by Apple) needs direct access to your coffee makers config file so it can start brewing? Again, we're just throwing around ideas and discussing the future... What's useless today might not be useless tomorrow, or 50 years from now. Who knows.

    • CommentAuthorAudarius
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006 edited
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    Audarius - There were millions of people that said "so what" to the internet years upon years ago. Not everyone saw a use for it. And now, I dont think I have to go thru the popularity of the internet not only for personal but also business uses.

    An online coffee maker?...could download coupons, provide new recipes, connect to your calendar to have coffee ready when you want it, reorder filters/coffee/creamer by itself. There are uses, and as long as there is a market for those uses, it's possible that a coffee maker could go online.

    I would have to debate with you on the "so what" about the internet. The internet was created with a huge purpose. That purpose was the sharing of information among educational and research institutions. I don't believe anyone (or millions) would say the internet is useless in its early days.

    About the coffee maker part, why would I buy a coffee maker that can do all those things when I can just buy a PC that can do all that + more? Now that question opens another question, why decentralize the use everything when we can centralize it? Why not centralize home appliances on the PC? Instead of starting all over on everything, lets advance what we already have for it, what happen to innovation? The more I get into this discussion the more "via internet concept" makes less sense. There are better concepts that can happan today, not years.

    Everything has uses, but the real question is whether its a luxury use or a needed use. The internet coffee maker has luxury uses, so I could just say "So what?" to it.

    If you told people 25 years ago that they needed desktop PC's in their house, you would have received the same response you just gave me "so what, what's the purpose". I mean come on, I could always pose the following question; what's the purpose of anything?

    So theres no reason today, what would be the reason 10 - 60 years from now?
    I gave reason as to why I would "So what?" to the "via internet concept", but I would like to know why people would say "So what?" to the desktop PC 25 years ago. And you should also always pose that question of an object, but I was wrong in one thing. There is purpose everything, but everything has a different, and level of, purpose."via internet" has little purpose.

    Confusion 2: I'm also not disregarding the desktop, but I'm saying that there are 100 times more devices being sold than desktops, making it a much more liquid market.

    Yeah I guess misunderstood.

    Confusion 3: "Internet" and WWW aren't the same thing in this context, meaning your devices wouldn't have their own website. Instead, you might be connected via an open platform that each device connects to (that's where the money would be - I think being on 3 billion devices beats being on 300 million PC's anyday).

    No confusion here. I'm thinking just like you with an open platform/universal matrix.

    The point of having devices/appliances connected to the web would be access and control, as I have already exemplified. Yeah, it may not be a big deal now... but what about 60 years from now when your iRobot (designed by Apple) needs direct access to your coffee makers config file so it can start brewing? Again, we're just throwing around ideas and discussing the future... What's useless today might not be useless tomorrow, or 50 years from now. Who knows.

    Ah now I see, why use the internet for access and control? Think about the security implications of this! You might as well give your house to a hacker!lol Nothing on the internet is unbreakable and to actually put things like appliances on the internet for access and control would be insane. Read about what I said to SSM about access and control from just a PC.

    About the iRobot thing, why the internet? Accessing a config file has nothing to do with the internet. If we had iRobots today, we could just insert a computer chip and the robot could connect via IR. Or use a specially-designed type of wifi, not the same as internet wifi though.

    I'm not discussing what is useless today, can't really do that. But we can always eliminate/breakdown possiblites.

    • CommentAuthorrdewey
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006 edited
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    Well, the internet would have several advantages in the event of an "iRobot". For example, your settings would be stored on the internet, so each "robot" would remember you without the need for flash drives and whatnot.

    About media and data "everywhere"... Again, you could go to your friends house and show him the video you recorded on your PC or on Tivo - this isn't possible with a LAN setup as you mention. You could login to his radio and show him that latest badass song... The possibility is unlimited. The reason I said "coffee maker" was just to show that even the most boring appliances could actually make use of the internet (although, that "use" is definitely in question).

    I firmly believe that the internet IS the next medium... You won't be carrying around CD's and flash drives - you'll just have to remember a username and password.

    I guess I'm sort of thinking of a GDrive or S3 drive that everything can connect to... However, GDrive isn't open and I don't think a "closed" or proprietary system is the key. Now, when I say "configuration file"... I simply mean a file that would be stored in your remote account.

    Devices in the next five to ten years that will make significant headway into the "data everywhere" world;

    Desktops
    Notebooks
    Cellular phones
    PDA's
    Home stereos
    TV's
    DVR's
    Gaming consoles
    (I'm sure I'm missing something)

    • CommentAuthorAudarius
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006 edited
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    Well, the internet would have several advantages in the event of an "iRobot". For example, your settings would be stored on the internet, so each "robot" would remember you without the need for flash drives and whatnot.

    That's not a very good example. Why can't it be just stored on the robot themselves? I don't see no need for flash drives anyways in this situation.

    About media and data "everywhere"... Again, you could go to your friends house and show him the video you recorded on your PC or on Tivo - this isn't possible with a LAN setup as you mention. You could login to his radio and show him that latest badass song... The possibility is unlimited. The reason I said "coffee maker" was just to show that even the most boring appliances could actually make use of the internet (although, that "use" is definitely in question).

    Not a LAN setup otherwise I would of said LAN. We currently have internet radio and the sharing of video, the possiblities are already here and they're growing right now, today.

    I firmly believe that the internet IS the next medium... You won't be carrying around CD's and flash drives - you'll just have to remember a username and password.

    I believe the internet is a medium that is continously evolving. You didn't address security.

    I guess I'm sort of thinking of a GDrive or S3 drive that everything can connect to... However, GDrive isn't open and I don't think a "closed" or proprietary system is the key. Now, when I say "configuration file"... I simply mean a file that would be stored in your remote account.

    Ok so GDrive, then that goes back down to things people want to share and store. Not access and control?

    Devices in the next five to ten years that will make significant headway into the "data everywhere" world;

    It's possible.

    • CommentAuthorrdewey
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    It's all about "data everywhere", data which is controllable and accessible by all devices. When you manipulate data, you exert "access" and "control"... They are essentially synonymous in this respect.

    When you say "Why not centralize home appliances on the PC?", that would essentially be a Local Area Network or LAN. Streaming everything from your desktop PC is going backwards. Your data should be available when and where you want it... Not tethered to your desktop (i.e. a Local Area Network, aka LAN), that's inefficient.

    YouTube and internet radio still require extra steps, and ultimately disaggregate and decentralize data if it's used as storage mediums. Those services are steps in the right direction, but they are not the LAST steps.

    In terms of security, if you're on the internet right now, you're at risk. How many times has your system been hacked in the true sense of the word? I can't say that mine ever has. Heck, each device could connect through WiFi and sit behind a firewall... Your "WebFS" would use 128 bit or 256 bit encryption (whatever is allowed by law). Remember when people were afraid to shop online because of credit card fraud? eBay seems to be running pretty smooth.

    I really don't know how to explain it any different. Back before the internet, many people did say it would be useless... There will ALWAYS be a large portion of naysayers when it comes to new technology, and "data everywhere" will have its own share.

    • CommentAuthorAudarius
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    It's all about "data everywhere", data which is controllable and accessible by all devices. When you manipulate data, you exert "access" and "control"... They are essentially synonymous in this respect.

    Ok that makes sense.

    When you say "Why not centralize home appliances on the PC?", that would essentially be a Local Area Network or LAN. Streaming everything from your desktop PC is going backwards. Your data should be available when and where you want it... Not tethered to your desktop (i.e. a Local Area Network, aka LAN), that's inefficient.

    I understand that I wasn't very specific on the LAN. Your PC can be held as your home control panel, it can be configured like a home entertainment system which is a centralized system. If you wish to connect to your PC from a remote location we already have technology and applications on PCs including cell phones. Of course it would be right to connect to your radio independently but you should only be able to when in the proximity, you don't use the radio when no ones home. A better example would be if I wanted to upload mp3s directly into my radio, I would use my PC of course from configing and everything, but if I wanted to use another PC then that PC can directly connect (not open to the internet) to my radio through ways similar to an IP, the radio would have its own username and password. And if someone would like to listen to what I have on my radio they can easily tune to my IP because the radio would be part of my broadband connection. This is possibly a more secure, direct, and efficient approach. Its like having your PC as a remote control for your entire house, even from remote locations.

    YouTube and internet radio still require extra steps, and ultimately disaggregate and decentralize data if it's used as storage mediums. Those services are steps in the right direction, but they are not the LAST steps.

    Exactly, like I said, it's still growing.

    In terms of security, if you're on the internet right now, you're at risk. How many times has your system been hacked in the true sense of the word? I can't say that mine ever has. Heck, each device could connect through WiFi and sit behind a firewall... Your "WebFS" would use 128 bit or 256 bit encryption (whatever is allowed by law). Remember when people were afraid to shop online because of credit card fraud? eBay seems to be running pretty smooth.

    Hacked? No. Maybe that's because I haven't given them a reason too but what you're suggesting does give them reason. I've learned that wifi is the easiest to penetrate even behind a firewall. Those encryptions don't mean anything because like I said, nothing is inpenetrable, what is not inpenetrable if the data in the palm of my hand inside a flash drive.

    This isn't just about credit card fraud, because what you're suggesting is everything uploaded into a open platform/universal matrix. No more flash drives, desktops, and I'm guessing any type of physical storage device. Every sensitive and insensitive data and information in one place that just requires a username and password, that anyone can steal from you. Just think about the risks the company would put itself in, that company would need all the insurance in the world if anything goes wrong lol. All the blame would be on the company.

    I really don't know how to explain it any different. Back before the internet, many people did say it would be useless... There will ALWAYS be a large portion of naysayers when it comes to new technology, and "data everywhere" will have its own share.

    Yeah it will have its own share, I wouldn't be surprised if the government stepped in. I just now thought about it: The Patriot Act would love this! lol
    Most likely major restrictions would be layed down for security concerns. On top of that, I don't see businesses using such a system either, especially huge corporations who have huge amounts of classified information. Business and government is the top two reasons why it can't be the next Microsoft or anything close to it.

    • CommentAuthorrdewey
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    It sounds like we are finally coming to an agreement ;-)

    On the data side of things, I'm talking a purely open system. The standards and protocols are already in place... For example, it could be a corporate network that you would connect to via your devices (i.e. PDA's, cellular phones, desktops, etc.). That's alot safer than employees carrying around company notebooks with 50K social security numbers, or USB flash drives.

    As long as people are smart with their technology, hacking and theft would be minimal. Since the central "platform" would simply be a remote web-drive, it's a universal username and password across all devices and appliances. In order for a person to successfuly "hack" a device or appliance, they need to;

    1) Get your username and password, or
    2) Packet sniff

    The first one would be the best method, since decrypting 128bit data on a home-based computer would take billions of years. Even so, any web-based storage provider could simply set a limit on password "attempts" per day, so it would be pretty much useless to setup a supercomputer to try every possible password combination for a username.

    On the server side, I suppose someone hacking into it would be the biggest threat, but I'm sure there are ways of locking down the system pretty tight. Considering that credit card databases and government servers hold the most useful information in terms of profitability, and the fact that they are relatively hack free, would lead me to believe that a tight lockdown is more than possible.

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      CommentAuthorSSM
    • CommentTimeOct 22nd 2006
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    I totally agree with access to anything anywhere. For instance, the iRobot - thousands of them, maybe millions around everywhere could simply read your thumb print/retina and know what you need or want because of what is stored on the iDataBase. I've thought for years that PC will become "public" computer terminals where you go to them anywhere...like phonebooths. You sign in somehow, and browse thru all of your data which is saved online. Thats where I see things going. Of course people will still have their home/laptop computers but wont be forced to travel with them anywhere.

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